Mitigating and adapting to climate change: this is the single, most urgent challenge humanity is faced with today. International commitments set targets for average increases in global temperatures at 1.5oC, imposing drastic changes in the way our societies and economies function and develop. Standing up to this challenge requires the elaboration of holistic strategies, operating at the intersections of the different sectors of our economy. Trinomics has an enthusiastic team of experts to tackle such issues. Our work spans adaptation and resilience, climate finance, carbon pricing and markets, emission reduction pathways, as well as cross-cutting themes, embracing international agreements, questions of social justice and inclusion, sustainable governance and development.
The types of studies we undertake reflect this diversity, with service contracts involving, among others, impact assessments and evaluations, stakeholder engagement, indicator development and market analyses, merging quantitative and qualitative tools. Our work advises leading public and private clients, at national, European and international level. Trinomics’ Climate Change team works at the forefront of international climate policy, intersecting domains and methods to deliver policy advice for a climate-neutral future.
- Climate finance
- Adaptation & resilience
- Carbon pricing
- Emission reduction pathways
- Agreements and policies
- Climate co-benefits
- Addressing the current global needs on climate change mitigation and adaptation requires financial flows to be consistent with a 1.5-degree global warming pathway. Despite the global momentum for aligning financial flows with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, there is limited progress in overall climate finance flows consistent with those targets. It is crucial, therefore, to develop transparent mechanisms that enable the transfer and mobilisation of finance, in the area of climate mitigation and adaptation.
- At Trinomics, we have continuously worked to enhance transparency and support the mobilisation of international climate finance. Since 2016, we have supported the European Commission in the aggregation and assessment of the information reported by the EU Member States on climate finance provided to developing countries. Along these lines, we have regularly supported national governments on developing climate finance reporting methodologies as well as evaluating national climate finance strategies. At the global level, we have worked to enhance access to international climate finance of a variety of developing countries including, among others, Barbados and St Vincent, El Salvador, Kenya and Uganda.
Adaptation & resilience
As global emissions of greenhouse gases are still on the rise, their impacts on the climate translate in increased disaster risks, from more frequent extreme weather events such as floods, heatwaves, or drought, to coastal erosion and rising sea levels. These events bear significant repercussions across the globe, with most critical consequences to vulnerable communities and peoples. Even in the presence of robust climate mitigation strategies, our societies will inevitably need to build adaptation measures, increasing their resilience to climate change-related risks.
We assist governments and international organisations with their economic and financial assessment of future adaptation needs to disaster risk. We are building a well-rounded expertise in the area of climate adaptation, through our work evaluating the 2013 EU Adaptation Strategy, and by conducting the impact assessment on the new EU Adaptation Strategy. In these projects we have applied the EU Better Regulation Guidelines to assess the effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, coherence and EU added value of these interventions. This contributed to our knowledge base which has been generated through modelling the socio-economic impacts, and assessment of policy options to instigate and accelerate adaptation action throughout Europe.
Carbon pricing is an essential instrument in the suite of policy measures necessary in meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. By putting a price on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, emitters are financially incentivised to reduce their GHG emissions in a cost-effective manner. Simultaneously, carbon pricing can generate revenues to support vulnerable households or direct financial flows to low-carbon investments. The successful design of carbon pricing policies requires the careful consideration of its potential associated risks, including loss of competitiveness, regressive economic impacts on low-income groups and carbon leakage.
At Trinomics, we are actively shaping carbon pricing policies through our work for the European Commission and national governments. We have conducted numerous studies on policy measures to address the risk of carbon leakage such as free allocation and carbon border adjustment mechanisms. This includes assessing the risk of carbon leakage for industrial sectors under the EU ETS, as well as reviewing the market stability reserve (MSR) and investigating the potential to extend the EU ETS to the maritime sector. In addition, we have supported the Dutch government in the design and implementation of the Dutch CO2 levy for industry. As such, we have a team of experts with in-depth knowledge on how to design and implement carbon pricing policies effectively.
Emission reduction pathways
In line with the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement, governments are required to design and implement emission reduction pathways cutting across all sectors of the economy. At EU-level, the Green Deal and the “Fit-for-55” package put forward these objectives by setting carbon neutral targets and pathways. Evidence-based policy is crucial in order to implement a mitigation agenda that critically addresses emission reduction pathways and draws the roadmaps to achieve carbon neutrality.
Along these lines, our work has been at the center of the EU decarbonization discussion, playing an active role on crucial domains, such as the assessment of carbon leakage risk under the EU ETS, and the assessment of emissions abatement potential for various key-sectors. Other relevant work includes an in-depth analysis for the European Parliament and its Committee on Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE) on decarbonization of the steel industry. We were also involved in a study on EU ETS for maritime transport and possible alternative options or combinations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (European Commission – DG Environment Project).
Climate agreements and policies
In December 2019, the European Commission launched the new European Green Deal, which sets out a goal for Europe’s economy and society to become climate-neutral by 2050. In effect this means going beyond the targets developed under the Paris Agreement, by achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the EU, mainly by reducing emissions, investing in green technologies and protecting the natural environment.
Trinomics is providing policy support to the European Commission and a broad range of national governments, through impact assessments, evaluations, open public consultations, the development of climate strategies and implementation road maps. We have a large track record in working on climate mitigation and adaptation policies. At a cross-cutting level, our experts are working on mainstreaming climate and environmental expenditure in the EU budget, the assessment of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and the Long-Term Strategies (LTS). Moreover, we are working on climate policy programme evaluations for various philanthropy organisations, such as the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) and the European Climate Foundation.
Addressing climate change can have multiple benefits besides sheerly environmental ones. Co-benefits derived from greenhouse gas emission reductions can span cleaner air (with the associated public health improvements), creation of green jobs, savings in energy costs due to increased energy efficiency, improved energy security due to diversification of energy sources, among many others. As public and political support are critical to advance and implement ambitious policy, it is imperative to effectively communicate and advance the positive effects derived from GHG emissions reduction.
At Trinomics, we are currently engaged in a variety of projects related to building awareness and knowledge of climate co-benefits. Our track-record includes the evaluation of the benefits of green and nature-based infrastructure compared to conventional infrastructure to further expand the knowledge on how to include these into economic analysis and decision-making processes. Furthermore, our team has assessed the co-benefits of shifting towards a sustainable mobility system, namely the reduction of oil dependency and health costs, increased EU competitiveness, and job creation. At the international level, we have supported multiple organisations, such as the World Bank, to identify the development impacts of their climate funded projects across several environmental and social dimensions.