ESPON-TITAN Territorial Impacts of Natural Disasters

Natural hazards and related risks pose a significant threat to the general population and the economy of Europe. Since economies and societies become more exposed to natural disasters due to the increasingly interconnected and interdependent local and national economies, the growing complexity of the modern world, and the patterns of territorial development, the related economic losses are skyrocketing. As the severity and frequency of natural disasters occuring in Europe are projected to increase over the next decades, the development of effective Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies is crucial for mitigating future economic losses.

To contribute to a more informed DRM and CCA in Europe, ESPON-TITAN examined the territorial distribution of four natural hazards across Europe, analysed their economic impacts, and identified good practices of DRM and CCA at different territorial levels. More specifically, the study analysed the territorial patterns of river floods, windstorms, droughts, and earthquakes in Europe, provided evidence on their direct and indirect economic impacts, and perdormed a complementary vulnerability assessment. Based on these results good practices of DRM and CCA were explored, supported by 8 case studies. Conclusions were translated into policy recommendations for considering territorial vulnerability and economic impacts of disasters into DRM/CCA strategies as part of an integrated place-based spatial development planning.

Trinomics led the work on the development of a methodology for the estimation of the direct and indirect economic impacts of natural hazards in Europe at global level (applicable across all European countries using available data) as well as at local level (applicable at national, regional and local level for countries where DRM is well advanced and more data is available). Our analysis indicated that across the period 1995 – 2017 Central and Eastern European and the investigated Southern and Eastern European countries tend to be relatively more affected by these types of natural hazards, in economic terms than most other parts of Europe. In addition, our work showed that indirect economic impacts, induced in specific regions by a disruption of economic activities in other, linked regions tend to be almost as large as direct impacts (e.g. damage in infrastructure).

You can find the results of EU-TITAN in the final report here (https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/ESPON-TITAN_Main%20Report.pdf). For a more detailed look at the economic impact analysis, you can read Annex 2 of the final report, found here (https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/ESPON-TITAN_Scientific%20Report-Annex%202_Economic%20Impact%20Analysis.pdf).

The project was conducted by TECNALIA (lead) in collaboration with Trinomics, Deological Survey of Finland, TU Dortmund University, and Cambridge Econometrics.