Assessing impacts of the reform of the waste tax and CO2 levy for waste incinerators

This study analyses the expected impact of the package of fiscal measures on waste incinerators and the existing waste management infrastructure in the Netherlands. The measures are centred around the reform of the waste disposal tax (NL: afvalstoffenbelasting − ASB) and the CO2 levy on waste incinerators. The goals of the fiscal measures are twofold: filling the tax revenue gap of €567 million due to a levy on virgin fossil polymer not being introduced anymore, and achieving a CO2 emission reduction of 2 Mt CO2 in 2030. Further, the proposed measure package also intends to accelerate the transition to a more circular economy. A behavioural impact mapping has been done to shed light on the expected impacts of the proposed measures package, including a focus on the business cases for CCS in waste incinerators and for waste recycling. This is complemented with a quantitative cost benchmarking with selected countries and an assessment of waste incineration and recycling capacity in these countries to understand the potential for shifts in Dutch waste trade flows. Insights from these analyses have been used to inform a reflection of the Ministry of Finance’s (FIN’s) revenue estimates resulting from the fiscal measures. The analysis in this study builds on publicly available data, a literature review, interviews with key experts and a sounding board meeting with key stakeholders. The findings from this study will inform the Dutch government’s decision-making process with concern to these fiscal measures.